中东是全球硫磺供给的核心枢纽，产量占全球 40% 以上，贸易量占全球海运贸易总量的 50% 左右，且几乎全部经霍尔木兹海峡运输，是全球硫磺贸易的 “咽喉要道”。据行业分析，本次冲突升级直接导致伊朗硫磺出口受阻，3 月订单约 50% 无法交付，装船量同比下降 45%。
On an individual level, some people perfectly understandably cite neurodivergence, introversion, inability to tolerate eye contact or an intense loathing for small talk (especially about the weather) as reasons to avoid these conversations. It’s certainly true that this time six years ago – at the height of lockdown – it would have been rude and unsafe to start a chat, let alone sit next to someone on a train. But now? It can feel as if everyone is still adhering to the 2-metre rule, employing “the tech shield” or even “phantom phone use” (pretending that you need to be on your phone when you don’t).
However, if the war and the effective closure of the Strait stretch beyond the market’s four-week expectation, the economic consequences could become dire. If regional storage facilities run out of space and production is forced to shut down, the market will only be able to rebalance through forced “demand destruction”. “To generate substantial demand destruction, prices may have to rise into triple digit territory,” Struyven warned, adding that the length of the disruption is the single most important variable in the market right now. Every sustained 10% increase in crude oil prices raises headline inflation by about 0.3% and reduces disposable income by the same margin.。关于这个话题，搜狗输入法提供了深入分析
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Belgian Grand Prix — July 19